Hypothesis Testing

Using computer simulation. Based on examples from the infer package. Code for Quiz 13.

Load the packages we will need

Question: t-test

set.seed(123)

hr_2_tidy.csv is the name of your data subset

hr  <- read_csv("https://estanny.com/static/week13/data/hr_2_tidy.csv", 
                col_types = "fddfff")

use skim to summarize the data in hr

skim(hr)
Table 1: Data summary
Name hr
Number of rows 500
Number of columns 6
_______________________
Column type frequency:
factor 4
numeric 2
________________________
Group variables None

Variable type: factor

skim_variable n_missing complete_rate ordered n_unique top_counts
gender 0 1 FALSE 2 mal: 256, fem: 244
evaluation 0 1 FALSE 4 bad: 154, fai: 142, goo: 108, ver: 96
salary 0 1 FALSE 6 lev: 95, lev: 94, lev: 87, lev: 85
status 0 1 FALSE 3 fir: 194, pro: 179, ok: 127

Variable type: numeric

skim_variable n_missing complete_rate mean sd p0 p25 p50 p75 p100 hist
age 0 1 39.86 11.55 20.3 29.60 40.2 50.1 59.9 ▇▇▇▇▇
hours 0 1 49.39 13.15 35.0 37.48 45.6 58.9 79.9 ▇▃▂▂▂

This means hours per week is: 49.4

Q: Is the mean number of hours per week is 48?


specify that hours is the variable of interest

hr  %>% 
  specify(response = hours)
Response: hours (numeric)
# A tibble: 500 × 1
   hours
   <dbl>
 1  78.1
 2  35.1
 3  36.9
 4  38.5
 5  36.1
 6  78.1
 7  76  
 8  35.6
 9  35.6
10  56.8
# … with 490 more rows

hypothesize that the average hours worked is 48

hr  %>% 
  specify(response = hours)  %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "point", mu = 48)
Response: hours (numeric)
Null Hypothesis: point
# A tibble: 500 × 1
   hours
   <dbl>
 1  78.1
 2  35.1
 3  36.9
 4  38.5
 5  36.1
 6  78.1
 7  76  
 8  35.6
 9  35.6
10  56.8
# … with 490 more rows

generate 1000 replicates representing the null hypothesis

hr %>% 
  specify(response = hours)  %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "point", mu = 48)  %>% 
  generate(reps = 1000, type = "bootstrap")
Response: hours (numeric)
Null Hypothesis: point
# A tibble: 500,000 × 2
# Groups:   replicate [1,000]
   replicate hours
       <int> <dbl>
 1         1  39.7
 2         1  44.3
 3         1  46.8
 4         1  33.7
 5         1  39.6
 6         1  39.5
 7         1  40.5
 8         1  55.8
 9         1  72.6
10         1  35.7
# … with 499,990 more rows

The output has 500,000 rows


calculate the distribution of statistics from the generated data

null_t_distribution  <- hr  %>% 
  specify(response = hours)  %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "point", mu = 48)  %>% 
  generate(reps = 1000, type = "bootstrap")  %>% 
  calculate(stat = "t")

null_t_distribution
Response: hours (numeric)
Null Hypothesis: point
# A tibble: 1,000 × 2
   replicate   stat
       <int>  <dbl>
 1         1  0.891
 2         2 -0.526
 3         3 -0.386
 4         4 -0.893
 5         5  0.491
 6         6 -0.483
 7         7  2.08 
 8         8 -1.23 
 9         9 -0.424
10        10 -1.21 
# … with 990 more rows

visualize the simulated null distribution

visualize(null_t_distribution)


calculate the statistic from your observed data

observed_t_statistic  <- hr  %>%
  specify(response = hours)  %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "point", mu = 48)  %>%
  calculate(stat = "t")

observed_t_statistic
Response: hours (numeric)
Null Hypothesis: point
# A tibble: 1 × 1
   stat
  <dbl>
1  2.37

get_p_value from the simulated null distribution and the observed statistic

null_t_distribution  %>% 
  get_p_value(obs_stat = observed_t_statistic, direction = "two-sided")
# A tibble: 1 × 1
  p_value
    <dbl>
1   0.014

shade_p_value on the simulated null distribution

null_t_distribution  %>% 
  visualize() +
  shade_p_value(obs_stat = observed_t_statistic, direction = "two-sided")

Is the p-value < 0.05? yes

Does your analysis support the null hypothesis that the true mean number of hours worked was 48? no

Question: 2 sample t-test

**hr_3_tidy.csv* *is the name of your data subset

hr_2  <- read_csv("https://estanny.com/static/week13/data/hr_3_tidy.csv", 
                col_types = "fddfff")

Q: Is the average number of hours worked the same for both genders?

use skim to summarize the data in hr_2 by gender

hr_2 %>% 
  group_by(gender)  %>% 
  skim()
Table 2: Data summary
Name Piped data
Number of rows 500
Number of columns 6
_______________________
Column type frequency:
factor 3
numeric 2
________________________
Group variables gender

Variable type: factor

skim_variable gender n_missing complete_rate ordered n_unique top_counts
evaluation male 0 1 FALSE 4 bad: 72, fai: 67, goo: 61, ver: 47
evaluation female 0 1 FALSE 4 bad: 76, fai: 71, goo: 61, ver: 45
salary male 0 1 FALSE 6 lev: 47, lev: 43, lev: 43, lev: 42
salary female 0 1 FALSE 6 lev: 51, lev: 46, lev: 45, lev: 43
status male 0 1 FALSE 3 fir: 98, pro: 81, ok: 68
status female 0 1 FALSE 3 fir: 98, pro: 91, ok: 64

Variable type: numeric

skim_variable gender n_missing complete_rate mean sd p0 p25 p50 p75 p100 hist
age male 0 1 38.23 10.86 20 28.9 37.9 47.05 59.9 ▇▇▇▇▅
age female 0 1 40.56 11.67 20 31.0 40.3 50.50 59.8 ▆▆▇▆▇
hours male 0 1 49.55 13.11 35 38.4 45.4 57.65 79.9 ▇▃▂▂▂
hours female 0 1 49.80 13.38 35 38.2 45.6 59.40 79.8 ▇▂▃▂▂

Use geom_boxplot to plot distributions of hours worked by gender

hr_2 %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = gender, y = hours)) + 
  geom_boxplot()


specify the variables of interest are hours and gender

hr_2 %>% 
  specify(response = hours, explanatory = gender)
Response: hours (numeric)
Explanatory: gender (factor)
# A tibble: 500 × 2
   hours gender
   <dbl> <fct> 
 1  49.6 male  
 2  39.2 female
 3  63.2 female
 4  42.2 male  
 5  54.7 male  
 6  54.3 female
 7  37.3 female
 8  45.6 female
 9  35.1 female
10  53   male  
# … with 490 more rows

hypothesize that the number of hours worked and gender are independent

hr_2  %>% 
  specify(response = hours, explanatory = gender)  %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "independence")
Response: hours (numeric)
Explanatory: gender (factor)
Null Hypothesis: independence
# A tibble: 500 × 2
   hours gender
   <dbl> <fct> 
 1  49.6 male  
 2  39.2 female
 3  63.2 female
 4  42.2 male  
 5  54.7 male  
 6  54.3 female
 7  37.3 female
 8  45.6 female
 9  35.1 female
10  53   male  
# … with 490 more rows

generate 1000 replicates representing the null hypothesis

hr_2 %>% 
  specify(response = hours, explanatory = gender)  %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "independence")  %>% 
  generate(reps = 1000, type = "permute") 
Response: hours (numeric)
Explanatory: gender (factor)
Null Hypothesis: independence
# A tibble: 500,000 × 3
# Groups:   replicate [1,000]
   hours gender replicate
   <dbl> <fct>      <int>
 1  55.7 male           1
 2  35.5 female         1
 3  35.1 female         1
 4  44.2 male           1
 5  52.8 male           1
 6  46   female         1
 7  41.2 female         1
 8  52.9 female         1
 9  35.6 female         1
10  35   male           1
# … with 499,990 more rows

The output has 500,000 rows


calculate the distribution of statistics from the generated data

null_distribution_2_sample_permute  <- hr_2 %>% 
  specify(response = hours, explanatory = gender)  %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "independence")  %>% 
  generate(reps = 1000, type = "permute")  %>% 
  calculate(stat = "t", order = c("female", "male"))

null_distribution_2_sample_permute
Response: hours (numeric)
Explanatory: gender (factor)
Null Hypothesis: independence
# A tibble: 1,000 × 2
   replicate    stat
       <int>   <dbl>
 1         1 -1.81  
 2         2 -1.29  
 3         3  0.0525
 4         4 -0.793 
 5         5  0.826 
 6         6  0.429 
 7         7  0.0843
 8         8 -0.264 
 9         9  2.42  
10        10  0.603 
# … with 990 more rows

visualize the simulated null distribution

visualize(null_distribution_2_sample_permute)


calculate the statistic from your observed data

observed_t_2_sample_stat  <- hr_2 %>%
  specify(response = hours, explanatory = gender)  %>% 
  calculate(stat = "t", order = c("female", "male"))

observed_t_2_sample_stat
Response: hours (numeric)
Explanatory: gender (factor)
# A tibble: 1 × 1
   stat
  <dbl>
1 0.208

get_p_value from the simulated null distribution and the observed statistic

null_t_distribution  %>% 
  get_p_value(obs_stat = observed_t_2_sample_stat, direction = "two-sided")
# A tibble: 1 × 1
  p_value
    <dbl>
1   0.822

shade_p_value on the simulated null distribution

null_t_distribution  %>% 
  visualize() +
  shade_p_value(obs_stat = observed_t_2_sample_stat, direction = "two-sided")
ggsave(filename = "preview.png", 
       path = here::here("_posts", "2022-05-02-hypothesis-testing"))

Is the p-value < 0.05? no

Does your analysis support the null hypothesis that the true mean number of hours worked by female and male employees was the same? yes


Question: ANOVA

hr_3_tidy.csv is the name of your data subset

hr_anova <- read_csv("https://estanny.com/static/week13/data/hr_3_tidy.csv", 
                col_types = "fddfff")

Q: Is the average number of hours worked the same for all three status (fired, ok and promoted) ?

use skim to summarize the data in hr_anova by status

hr_anova %>% 
  group_by(status)  %>% 
  skim()
Table 3: Data summary
Name Piped data
Number of rows 500
Number of columns 6
_______________________
Column type frequency:
factor 3
numeric 2
________________________
Group variables status

Variable type: factor

skim_variable status n_missing complete_rate ordered n_unique top_counts
gender promoted 0 1 FALSE 2 fem: 91, mal: 81
gender fired 0 1 FALSE 2 mal: 98, fem: 98
gender ok 0 1 FALSE 2 mal: 68, fem: 64
evaluation promoted 0 1 FALSE 4 goo: 79, ver: 52, fai: 21, bad: 20
evaluation fired 0 1 FALSE 4 bad: 77, fai: 64, ver: 30, goo: 25
evaluation ok 0 1 FALSE 4 fai: 53, bad: 51, goo: 18, ver: 10
salary promoted 0 1 FALSE 6 lev: 42, lev: 37, lev: 36, lev: 28
salary fired 0 1 FALSE 6 lev: 59, lev: 40, lev: 39, lev: 25
salary ok 0 1 FALSE 6 lev: 33, lev: 29, lev: 28, lev: 23

Variable type: numeric

skim_variable status n_missing complete_rate mean sd p0 p25 p50 p75 p100 hist
age promoted 0 1 40.22 11.11 20.1 31.67 41.00 48.82 59.7 ▆▇▇▇▇
age fired 0 1 38.95 11.23 20.0 29.82 38.80 48.75 59.9 ▇▆▇▇▅
age ok 0 1 39.03 11.77 20.0 28.28 38.75 49.92 59.7 ▇▇▆▇▆
hours promoted 0 1 59.29 12.53 35.0 49.90 58.65 70.35 79.9 ▅▆▇▆▇
hours fired 0 1 42.37 9.15 35.0 36.20 39.20 43.80 79.6 ▇▁▁▁▁
hours ok 0 1 47.99 11.55 35.0 37.45 45.75 55.23 75.7 ▇▃▃▂▂

Use geom_boxplot to plot distributions of hours worked by status

hr_anova %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = status, y = hours)) + 
  geom_boxplot()


specify the variables of interest are hours and status

hr_anova %>% 
  specify(response = hours, explanatory = status)
Response: hours (numeric)
Explanatory: status (factor)
# A tibble: 500 × 2
   hours status  
   <dbl> <fct>   
 1  49.6 promoted
 2  39.2 fired   
 3  63.2 promoted
 4  42.2 promoted
 5  54.7 promoted
 6  54.3 fired   
 7  37.3 fired   
 8  45.6 promoted
 9  35.1 fired   
10  53   promoted
# … with 490 more rows

hypothesize that the number of hours worked and status are independent

hr_anova  %>% 
  specify(response = hours, explanatory = status)  %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "independence")
Response: hours (numeric)
Explanatory: status (factor)
Null Hypothesis: independence
# A tibble: 500 × 2
   hours status  
   <dbl> <fct>   
 1  49.6 promoted
 2  39.2 fired   
 3  63.2 promoted
 4  42.2 promoted
 5  54.7 promoted
 6  54.3 fired   
 7  37.3 fired   
 8  45.6 promoted
 9  35.1 fired   
10  53   promoted
# … with 490 more rows

generate 1000 replicates representing the null hypothesis

hr_anova %>% 
  specify(response = hours, explanatory = status)  %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "independence")  %>% 
  generate(reps = 1000, type = "permute")
Response: hours (numeric)
Explanatory: status (factor)
Null Hypothesis: independence
# A tibble: 500,000 × 3
# Groups:   replicate [1,000]
   hours status   replicate
   <dbl> <fct>        <int>
 1  38.4 promoted         1
 2  41   fired            1
 3  66.1 promoted         1
 4  46.1 promoted         1
 5  65.1 promoted         1
 6  43.7 fired            1
 7  35.1 fired            1
 8  40.9 promoted         1
 9  38.4 fired            1
10  67.7 promoted         1
# … with 499,990 more rows

The output has 500,000 rows


calculate the distribution of statistics from the generated data

null_distribution_anova  <- hr_anova %>% 
  specify(response = hours, explanatory = status)  %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "independence")  %>% 
  generate(reps = 1000, type = "permute")  %>% 
  calculate(stat = "F")

null_distribution_anova
Response: hours (numeric)
Explanatory: status (factor)
Null Hypothesis: independence
# A tibble: 1,000 × 2
   replicate   stat
       <int>  <dbl>
 1         1 0.204 
 2         2 0.972 
 3         3 2.16  
 4         4 1.33  
 5         5 0.919 
 6         6 1.14  
 7         7 1.52  
 8         8 0.335 
 9         9 0.500 
10        10 0.0298
# … with 990 more rows

visualize the simulated null distribution

visualize(null_distribution_anova)


calculate the statistic from your observed data

observed_f_sample_stat  <- hr_anova %>%
  specify(response = hours, explanatory = status)  %>% 
  calculate(stat = "F")

observed_f_sample_stat
Response: hours (numeric)
Explanatory: status (factor)
# A tibble: 1 × 1
   stat
  <dbl>
1  110.

get_p_value from the simulated null distribution and the observed statistic

null_distribution_anova  %>% 
  get_p_value(obs_stat = observed_f_sample_stat, direction = "greater")
# A tibble: 1 × 1
  p_value
    <dbl>
1       0

shade_p_value on the simulated null distribution

null_t_distribution  %>% 
  visualize() +
  shade_p_value(obs_stat = observed_f_sample_stat, direction = "greater")